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Leaked documents, published by The Guardian newspaper on internet archiving service Scribd, prove that the UK Government were warned in 2019 of the probability of viral pandemic and that it would be catastrophic to the lives of UK citizens. Further that huge numbers of deaths from the virus was also forecast by the Government's Chief Scientists who all sit on the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) The Guardian news paper analysed the 2019 National Security Risk Assessment report to the Government and summarised the report as giving very serious and alarming warnings: • A pandemic would play out in up to “three waves”, with each wave expected to last 15 weeks … “with the peak weeks occurring at weeks 6 and 7 in each wave”. • 50% of the population would be infected and experience symptoms of pandemic influenza during the one or more waves. The actual number of people infected would be higher than this, as there would be a number of asymptomatic cases. • A pandemic of moderate virulence could lead to 65,600 deaths. • The potential cost to the UK could be £2.35tn. • Even after the end of the pandemic, it is likely that it would take months or even years for health and social care services to recover. • There would be significant public outrage over any perceived poor handling of the government’s preparations and response to the emergency. The Guardian report says: 'Marked “official, sensitive”, the 2019 National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) was signed off by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, as well as a senior national security adviser to the prime minister whom the Guardian has been asked not to name.' The Guardian report opens with this statement: 'Ministers were warned last year the UK must have a robust plan to deal with a pandemic virus and its potentially catastrophic social and economic consequences in a confidential Cabinet Office briefing leaked to the Guardian. The detailed document warned that even a mild pandemic could cost tens of thousands of lives, and set out the must-have “capability requirements” to mitigate the risks to the country, as well as the potential damage of not doing so.' Whichever way you take this news, one thing it does show is that the UK Government has ignored the advice given, did not prepare in advance for the inevitable outbreak of virus Pandemic, and as has already been leaked; ensured that Boris Johnson's chief political adviser Dominic Cummings and Ben Warner, attend and take part in ALL meetings of the Government's supposedly independent advisory panel of experts and scientists - SAGE Government actions so far, mean only one opinion can be gathered from the secrecy and refusal to publish names of those on SAGE, and the so-called independent advice given by it's scientists. It is clear to many, from the actions of the Government, that Dominic Cummings and Ben Warner determine what the Government strategy is, and in effect tells the scientists what advice is acceptable and what is not. The blame game has already started from the outset, by the Government claiming they follow the 'best scientific advice' and is already starting to point the responsibility of any short-comings at the scientists door. Below you can read 4 pages of salient information from the 600 paged leaked document, courtesy of The Guardian Newspaper and Scribd and more info follows below.
Further analysis by The Guardian shows the report warned: • The pandemic would present in one or more waves. Each wave is expected to lasting 15 weeks, with the peak weeks occurring at weeks six and seven in each wave. • Fifty per cent of the population would be infected and experience symptoms of pandemic influenza during the one or more waves. The actual number of people infected would be higher than this, as there would be a number of asymptomatic cases. • A case fatality ratio of 2.5%, meaning 2.5% of those with symptoms could die as a result of the influenza virus. Four per cent of symptomatic patients would require hospital care, 25% of whom are expected to need the highest level of critical care (level three). • Peak illness rates of about 10-12% (measured in new clinical cases per week as a proportion of the population) are expected in each of the weeks in the peak fortnight (weeks six and seven). • Workplace absence rates for illness will be reaching 17-20% in the peak weeks. On deaths – moderate viral pandemicThis variation models a moderate pandemic, based on the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. The annual likelihood of a pandemic with the characteristics described below is 2%. The specific assumptions of this scenario are listed below.
There would also be higher than usual absence from work. On vaccines The UK has an advanced purchase agreement for pandemic vaccine, which can be triggered in response to a pandemic threat. Even after the end of the pandemic it is likely that it would take months, or even years, for the health and social care services to recover, although an exact timescale cannot be predicted. You can read more analysis and details of the 2019 National Security Risk Assessment report from the Guardian newspaper here and here Source: The Guardian / Scribd
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